diff --git a/content/posts/2025-03-12-bayesian-autogolpe-analysis/.gitignore b/content/posts/2025-03-12-bayesian-autogolpe-analysis/.gitignore index 759c3f1..13ec372 100644 --- a/content/posts/2025-03-12-bayesian-autogolpe-analysis/.gitignore +++ b/content/posts/2025-03-12-bayesian-autogolpe-analysis/.gitignore @@ -1,3 +1,3 @@ -index.md +_index.md figure/ libs/ diff --git a/content/posts/2025-03-12-bayesian-autogolpe-analysis/index.Rmd b/content/posts/2025-03-12-bayesian-autogolpe-analysis/_index.Rmd similarity index 74% rename from content/posts/2025-03-12-bayesian-autogolpe-analysis/index.Rmd rename to content/posts/2025-03-12-bayesian-autogolpe-analysis/_index.Rmd index c203bba..f31951f 100644 --- a/content/posts/2025-03-12-bayesian-autogolpe-analysis/index.Rmd +++ b/content/posts/2025-03-12-bayesian-autogolpe-analysis/_index.Rmd @@ -151,12 +151,12 @@ This is the approach we will use for the rest of the analysis. ## The Evidence Below is a chronological account of eight events from the first two months of -the administration. For each event, I describe what happened, assess the -likelihood ratio, and cite the source. +the administration. For each event, I describe what happened, give my assessment +of how the event is consistent and not consistent with an autogolpe, and +assign a likelihood ratio. -### 1. Firing Inspectors General (January 24) - +{{% details summary="**1. Firing Inspectors General (January 24)** --- LR = 9" %}} On a late Friday night, the administration [fired at least 17 independent inspectors general][NPR-IG] across federal agencies, effective immediately. Inspectors general are the government's internal watchdogs, charged with @@ -174,9 +174,10 @@ make this more consistent with the autogolpe hypothesis. \( P(E \mid A) = 0.90 \), \( P(E \mid \neg A) = 0.10 \), \( \text{LR} = 9 \). +[NPR-IG]: https://www.npr.org/2025/01/25/g-s1-44771/trump-fires-inspectors-general +{{% /details %}} -### 2. Shutting Down USAID (February 2) - +{{% details summary="**2. Shutting Down USAID (February 2)** --- LR ≈ 27" %}} The administration [placed all approximately 4,700 USAID employees on administrative leave][WaPo-USAID] and moved to shut down the agency---a Congressionally established agency with a statutory mandate. Approximately 92% @@ -194,9 +195,10 @@ governance, even aggressive governance. \( P(E \mid A) = 0.80 \), \( P(E \mid \neg A) = 0.03 \), \( \text{LR} \approx 27 \). +[WaPo-USAID]: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/02/02/usaid-trump-musk/ +{{% /details %}} -### 3. Accessing Government Computer Systems (February 4) - +{{% details summary="**3. Accessing Government Computer Systems (February 4)** --- LR ≈ 5" %}} Elon Musk's DOGE team [gained access to the Treasury Department's Bureau of Fiscal Service payment system][NPR-Treasury], which disburses roughly $5.4 trillion annually. They also [accessed the Office of Personnel Management's @@ -214,9 +216,11 @@ evidence in the set---it is the most amenable to an innocent explanation. \( P(E \mid A) = 0.70 \), \( P(E \mid \neg A) = 0.15 \), \( \text{LR} \approx 5 \). +[NPR-Treasury]: https://www.npr.org/2025/02/04/nx-s1-5285403/musks-doge-group-has-access-to-the-federal-payments-system-what-does-that-mean +[WaPo-OPM]: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/02/06/elon-musk-doge-access-personnel-data-opm-security/ +{{% /details %}} -### 4. Mass Firing Federal Workers (February 13) - +{{% details summary="**4. Mass Firing Federal Workers (February 13)** --- LR = 9" %}} The administration [fired over 24,000 probationary employees][NPR-Layoffs] across agencies including the CDC, Department of Education, Department of Energy, and the National Nuclear Security Administration. Many of these workers @@ -234,9 +238,10 @@ restructuring. \( P(E \mid A) = 0.90 \), \( P(E \mid \neg A) = 0.10 \), \( \text{LR} = 9 \). +[NPR-Layoffs]: https://www.npr.org/2025/02/13/nx-s1-5296928/layoffs-trump-doge-education-energy +{{% /details %}} -### 5. Asserting Executive Authority over Law Interpretation (February 18) - +{{% details summary="**5. Asserting Executive Authority over Law Interpretation (February 18)** --- LR = 8" %}} The president signed an executive order titled "Ensuring Accountability for All Agencies," [declaring that the president and attorney general "shall provide authoritative interpretations of law for the executive branch."][NPR-EO] The @@ -254,9 +259,10 @@ is narrow, but it exists. \( P(E \mid A) = 0.80 \), \( P(E \mid \neg A) = 0.10 \), \( \text{LR} = 8 \). +[NPR-EO]: https://www.npr.org/2025/02/19/nx-s1-5302481/trump-independent-agencies +{{% /details %}} -### 6. "Long Live the King" (February 19) - +{{% details summary="**6. "Long Live the King" (February 19)** --- LR = 7" %}} The official White House accounts on X, Instagram, and Facebook [posted an AI-generated image][NBC-King] depicting the president wearing a bejeweled golden crown, captioned "LONG LIVE THE KING." The White House Deputy Chief @@ -274,9 +280,10 @@ context lends it weight that a personal social media post would not carry. \( P(E \mid A) = 0.70 \), \( P(E \mid \neg A) = 0.10 \), \( \text{LR} = 7 \). +[NBC-King]: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/king-trump-rcna192912 +{{% /details %}} -### 7. Confirming Kash Patel as FBI Director (February 20) - +{{% details summary="**7. Confirming Kash Patel as FBI Director (February 20)** --- LR = 17" %}} The Senate [confirmed Kash Patel as FBI Director][NPR-Patel] on a 51--49 vote---the narrowest FBI director confirmation in history. Previous directors received 92 or more votes. Patel authored a book listing over 60 government @@ -293,9 +300,11 @@ beyond loyalty to something more closely resembling a plan. \( P(E \mid A) = 0.85 \), \( P(E \mid \neg A) = 0.05 \), \( \text{LR} = 17 \). +[NPR-Patel]: https://www.npr.org/2025/02/20/g-s1-49696/trump-cabinet-picks-kash-patel +[PBS-Patel]: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/senators-ask-fbi-director-nominee-kash-patel-about-enemies-list-and-politicization +{{% /details %}} -### 8. Firing Military Leadership (February 21) - +{{% details summary="**8. Firing Military Leadership (February 21)** --- LR = 15" %}} As described in the worked example above, the administration [fired the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Chief of Naval Operations, the Air Force Vice Chief of Staff, and several Judge Advocates General][PBS-Military] @@ -305,6 +314,9 @@ simultaneous nature of these firings, however, goes well beyond that. \( P(E \mid A) = 0.75 \), \( P(E \mid \neg A) = 0.05 \), \( \text{LR} = 15 \). +[PBS-Military]: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-fires-gen-cq-brown-as-chairman-of-the-joint-chiefs-of-staff +{{% /details %}} + ## Analysis @@ -432,285 +444,9 @@ bind_rows( ## Try Your Own Values The likelihood ratios above are my assessments. You may disagree. The -simulator below lets you adjust the prior probability and each event's -likelihoods to see how your own assumptions change the conclusion. You can -also uncheck events to exclude them entirely. - - - -
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- - +[interactive simulator](simulator/) lets you adjust the prior probability +and each event's likelihoods to see how your own assumptions change the +conclusion. ## Discussion @@ -730,7 +466,7 @@ assessments. Reasonable people will disagree. The value of this framework is not that it produces a single "correct" answer, but that it forces us to state our assumptions explicitly and see their consequences. If you think the likelihood of mass IG firings under aggressive-but-not-coup governance is 30% rather than -10%, try it in the simulator above and see how the posterior changes. +10%, try it in the [simulator](simulator/) and see how the posterior changes. **Independence assumption.** The odds form of Bayes' theorem assumes that the pieces of evidence are _conditionally independent_---that is, knowing one diff --git a/content/posts/2025-03-12-bayesian-autogolpe-analysis/simulator.md b/content/posts/2025-03-12-bayesian-autogolpe-analysis/simulator.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9883578 --- /dev/null +++ b/content/posts/2025-03-12-bayesian-autogolpe-analysis/simulator.md @@ -0,0 +1,288 @@ +--- +title: 'Bayesian Autogolpe Simulator' +description: > + Adjust the prior probability and each event's likelihoods to see how + your own assumptions change the conclusion. +ShowToc: false +--- + +The likelihood ratios in the [analysis](..) are my assessments. You may +disagree. The simulator below lets you adjust the prior probability and each +event's likelihoods to see how your own assumptions change the conclusion. You +can also uncheck events to exclude them entirely. + + + +
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