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<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1" standalone="no"?>
<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>vannevar</title><link rel="stylesheet" href="../../jargon.css" type="text/css"/><meta name="generator" content="DocBook XSL Stylesheets V1.61.0"/><link rel="home" href="../index.html" title="The Jargon File"/><link rel="up" href="../V.html" title="V"/><link rel="previous" href="vanity-domain.html" title="vanity domain"/><link rel="next" href="vaporware.html" title="vaporware"/></head><body><div class="navheader"><table width="100%" summary="Navigation header"><tr><th colspan="3" align="center">vannevar</th></tr><tr><td width="20%" align="left"><a accesskey="p" href="vanity-domain.html">Prev</a> </td><th width="60%" align="center">V</th><td width="20%" align="right"> <a accesskey="n" href="vaporware.html">Next</a></td></tr></table><hr/></div><dt><a id="vannevar"/><dt xmlns="" id="vannevar"><b>vannevar</b>: <span xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" class="pronunciation">/van'@·var/</span>, <span xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" class="grammar">n.</span></dt></dt><dd><p> A bogus technological prediction or a foredoomed engineering
concept, esp. one that fails by implicitly assuming that technologies
develop linearly, incrementally, and in isolation from one another when in
fact the learning curve tends to be highly nonlinear, revolutions are
common, and competition is the rule. The prototype was Vannevar Bush's
prediction of &#8216;electronic brains&#8217; the size of the Empire State
Building with a Niagara-Falls-equivalent cooling system for their tubes and
relays, a prediction made at a time when the semiconductor effect had
already been demonstrated. Other famous vannevars have included
magnetic-bubble memory, LISP machines, <a href="videotex.html"><i class="glossterm">videotex</i></a>, and
a paper from the late 1970s that computed a purported ultimate limit on
areal density for ICs that was in fact less than the routine densities of 5
years later.</p></dd><div class="navfooter"><hr/><table width="100%" summary="Navigation footer"><tr><td width="40%" align="left"><a accesskey="p" href="vanity-domain.html">Prev</a> </td><td width="20%" align="center"><a accesskey="u" href="../V.html">Up</a></td><td width="40%" align="right"> <a accesskey="n" href="vaporware.html">Next</a></td></tr><tr><td width="40%" align="left" valign="top">vanity domain </td><td width="20%" align="center"><a accesskey="h" href="../index.html">Home</a></td><td width="40%" align="right" valign="top"> vaporware</td></tr></table></div></body></html>